Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0–1 Celaya: Result & Stats

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Celaya

11/24/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca39%

×Draw27%

Celaya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alebrijes de OaxacaExpected goals in this matchCelaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.27

Celaya

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

1.20

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.41

Celaya

1.15

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.20

Celaya

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

Celaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw

66%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Celaya

73%

Draw or Celaya

61%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

17%

Celaya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

72%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

36%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

14%

Celaya 1+ goals

69%

Celaya 2+ goals

33%

Celaya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

53%

Celaya (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Celaya attack 1.15 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

39%

level

27%

Celaya scores more

34%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff