Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CDS Tampico Madero

H. Mascorro 15'

B. Muñoz 5'

9/22/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca42%

×Draw28%

CDS Tampico Madero30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alebrijes de OaxacaExpected goals in this matchCDS Tampico Madero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.27

CDS Tampico Madero

1.03

Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 37 away

1.41

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.41

CDS Tampico Madero

0.86

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.21

CDS Tampico Madero

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

CDS Tampico Madero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw

70%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or CDS Tampico Madero

72%

Draw or CDS Tampico Madero

58%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

19%

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

72%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

36%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

14%

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals

64%

CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals

28%

CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

58%

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.21 · 123 matches

CDS Tampico Madero away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

CDS Tampico Madero attack 0.86 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

42%

level

28%

CDS Tampico Madero scores more

30%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

B. Muñoz

14'

B. A. Munoz Magdaleno

15'

H. Mascorro

36'

F. Hurtado

40'

J. Hernandez

55'

A. Sanchez

58'

O. Ballesteros← F. Morales

58'

M. Mayo← F. Hurtado

59'

Á. Tecpanécatl← O. Soto

59'

S. Ramos← N. Corona

61'

O. Ballesteros

68'

L. Canton← B. García

68'

K. Peñaloza← C. Gutiérrez

70'

B. A. Munoz Magdaleno

70'

B. A. Munoz Magdaleno

81'

Richard Ruíz← A. Luna

81'

J. Franco← A. González

90+2'

A. Tecpanecatl

90+1'

F. Martínez← E. Pérez

Alebrijes

CDS

13

5

24

16

23

▼

Gutiérrez

10

▼

Soto

2

Bocco

8

⚽

Muñoz

26

▼

Pérez

14

▼

Corona

27

Angulo

1

Paz

6

▼

4

16

13

15

11

⚽

Mascorro

8

▼

Morales

18

▼

Hurtado

10

▼

González

30

▼

García

Manager: C. Gutiérrez

58'▲O. Ballesteros←▼F. Morales

58'▲M. Mayo←▼F. Hurtado

68'▲L. Canton←▼B. García

81'▲Richard Ruíz←▼A. Luna

81'▲J. Franco←▼A. González

Alebrijes de Oaxaca substitutes

19Ballesteros25Mayo32Canton23Ruíz29Franco5Esqueda14Vázquez21Fernández24Huerta28Núñez

Manager: G. Obledo

59'▲Á. Tecpanécatl←▼O. Soto

59'▲S. Ramos←▼N. Corona

68'▲K. Peñaloza←▼C. Gutiérrez

90+1'▲F. Martínez←▼E. Pérez

CDS Tampico Madero substitutes

7Tecpanécatl30Ramos11Peñaloza19Martínez3Rivera9Ramos12Flores18Mendoza31Minota