Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aldosivi vs Deportivo Madryn — Primera Nacional 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
6/30/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 21Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aldosivi41%
×Draw32%
Deportivo Madryn27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
1.06
Deportivo Madryn
0.79

Aldosivi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 84 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
1.11
Deportivo Madryn
0.89

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.70
Deportivo Madryn
1.01

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par
Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Deportivo Madryn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
73%
Aldosivi or Deportivo Madryn
68%
Draw or Deportivo Madryn
59%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
65%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
29%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
55%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Deportivo Madryn away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.11 + Deportivo Madryn defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Madryn attack 0.89 + Aldosivi defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aldosivi scores more
41%
level
32%
Deportivo Madryn scores more
27%

Aldosivi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Aldosivi 1–0 Deportivo Madryn

Aldosivi beat Deportivo Madryn 1-0 in Primera Nacional on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.