Aldosivi 2–1 Atlanta: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlanta

7/14/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 23Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aldosivi44%

×Draw31%

Atlanta25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchAtlanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.77

Aldosivi

1.12

Atlanta

0.77

Aldosivi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 111 away

1.11

creates per match

0.84

0.70

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Aldosivi

1.11

Atlanta

0.84

allows per match

Aldosivi

0.70

Atlanta

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Atlanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

75%

Aldosivi or Atlanta

69%

Draw or Atlanta

56%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

18%

Atlanta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

67%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

31%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

10%

Atlanta 1+ goals

54%

Atlanta 2+ goals

18%

Atlanta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

64%

Atlanta (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Atlanta away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.13 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.11 + Atlanta defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atlanta attack 0.84 + Aldosivi defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aldosivi scores more

44%

level

31%

Atlanta scores more

25%

Aldosivi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff