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Aldershot Town vs Sutton Utd — League #43 2026

Aldershot Town
Aldershot Town
Preview
19:45
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
1/8/2027League #43League #43 · Round 27EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground
Big match
37%
Sutton Utd
model favours
36%27%37%

Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aldershot Town36%
×Draw27%
Sutton Utd37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldershot Town
1.22
Sutton Utd
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Aldershot Town
1.24
Sutton Utd
1.24

allows per match

Aldershot Town
1.24
Sutton Utd
1.20

finishing

Aldershot Town+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldershot Town ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aldershot Town or draw
63%
Aldershot Town or Sutton Utd
73%
Draw or Sutton Utd
64%

Winning margin

Aldershot Town wins by 2+
15%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aldershot Town 1+ goals
70%
Aldershot Town 2+ goals
34%
Aldershot Town 3+ goals
12%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
71%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
35%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aldershot Town (draw refunded)
49%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldershot Town at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldershot Town attack 1.24 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Aldershot Town defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aldershot Town scores more
36%
level
27%
Sutton Utd scores more
37%

Sutton Utd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aldershot Town sit 22, Sutton Utd 2 in the table
  • 38% of Sutton Utd’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWWWD
Utd
DLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aldershot Town vs Sutton Utd — Match Preview

Aldershot Town face Sutton Utd on January 8, 2027 in this League #43 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Aldershot Town host Sutton Utd at EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.