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Alcúdia vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Rafael
San Rafael
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Alcúdia47%
×Draw26%
San Rafael27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.48
San Rafael
1.05

Alcúdia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 47 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
73%
Alcúdia or San Rafael
74%
Draw or San Rafael
53%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
23%
San Rafael wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
77%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
43%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
19%
San Rafael 1+ goals
65%
San Rafael 2+ goals
28%
San Rafael 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
64%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alcúdia scores more
47%
level
26%
San Rafael scores more
27%

Alcúdia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcúdia vs San Rafael

Alcúdia and San Rafael drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.