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Alcúdia vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
9/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 1Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alcúdia37%
×Draw28%
Penya Independent35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.18
Penya Independent
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
65%
Alcúdia or Penya Independent
72%
Draw or Penya Independent
63%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
16%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
69%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
33%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
12%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
68%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
31%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
52%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.18

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alcúdia scores more
37%
level
28%
Penya Independent scores more
35%

Alcúdia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Alcúdia 0–3 Penya Independent

Penya Independent beat Alcúdia 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.