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Alcúdia vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Alcúdia51%
×Draw24%
Ferriolense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.70
Ferriolense
1.10

Alcúdia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
75%
Alcúdia or Ferriolense
76%
Draw or Ferriolense
49%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
28%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
82%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
51%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
24%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
67%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
30%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
68%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alcúdia scores more
51%
level
24%
Ferriolense scores more
25%

Alcúdia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcúdia vs Ferriolense

Ferriolense beat Alcúdia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.