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Alcúdia vs Esporles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esporles
Esporles
3/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Alcúdia60%
×Draw23%
Esporles18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.81
Esporles
0.86

Alcúdia creates 110% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Esporles
0.57

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Esporles
2.18

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Esporles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
82%
Alcúdia or Esporles
77%
Draw or Esporles
40%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
34%
Esporles wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
84%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
54%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
27%
Esporles 1+ goals
58%
Esporles 2+ goals
21%
Esporles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
77%
Esporles (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Esporles attack 0.57 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alcúdia scores more
60%
level
23%
Esporles scores more
18%

Alcúdia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcúdia vs Esporles

Alcúdia beat Esporles 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.