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Alcúdia vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Binissalem
Binissalem
12/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 14Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Alcúdia45%
×Draw27%
Binissalem28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.38
Binissalem
1.04

Alcúdia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 113 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
72%
Alcúdia or Binissalem
73%
Draw or Binissalem
55%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
21%
Binissalem wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
75%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
40%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
16%
Binissalem 1+ goals
65%
Binissalem 2+ goals
28%
Binissalem 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
61%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alcúdia scores more
45%
level
27%
Binissalem scores more
28%

Alcúdia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcúdia vs Binissalem

Alcúdia beat Binissalem 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.