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Alcúdia vs Arenal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arenal
Arenal
1/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alcúdia56%
×Draw24%
Arenal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.69
Arenal
0.88

Alcúdia creates 92% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Arenal
0.59

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Arenal
1.94

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Arenal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Arenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
81%
Alcúdia or Arenal
76%
Draw or Arenal
44%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
31%
Arenal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
82%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
50%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
24%
Arenal 1+ goals
59%
Arenal 2+ goals
22%
Arenal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
74%
Arenal (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Arenal away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Arenal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Arenal attack 0.59 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alcúdia scores more
56%
level
24%
Arenal scores more
19%

Alcúdia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcúdia vs Arenal

Alcúdia beat Arenal 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.