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Alcoyano vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Alcoyano
Alcoyano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alcoyano58%
×Draw23%
Villarreal III18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcoyano
1.76
Villarreal III
0.87

Alcoyano creates 102% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 112 away

creates per match

Alcoyano
2.29
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Alcoyano
0.36
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Alcoyano+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcoyano ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcoyano or draw
82%
Alcoyano or Villarreal III
77%
Draw or Villarreal III
42%

Winning margin

Alcoyano wins by 2+
33%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals
83%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
52%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
26%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
58%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
22%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcoyano (draw refunded)
76%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcoyano at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcoyano attack 2.29 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Alcoyano defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alcoyano scores more
58%
level
23%
Villarreal III scores more
18%

Alcoyano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Alcoyano 1–1 Villarreal III

Alcoyano and Villarreal III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Collao in Alcoy.