Alcoyano 3–0 Sanluqueño: Result & Stats

Alcoyano

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sanluqueño

1/30/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Alcoyano44%

×Draw29%

Sanluqueño27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcoyanoExpected goals in this matchSanluqueño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.89

Alcoyano

1.24

Sanluqueño

0.89

Alcoyano creates 39% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

1.03

creates per match

0.80

0.97

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Alcoyano

1.03

Sanluqueño

0.80

allows per match

Alcoyano

0.97

Sanluqueño

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcoyano ↓

Sanluqueño →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alcoyano or draw

73%

Alcoyano or Sanluqueño

71%

Draw or Sanluqueño

56%

Winning margin

Alcoyano wins by 2+

20%

Sanluqueño wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals

71%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

35%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

13%

Sanluqueño 1+ goals

59%

Sanluqueño 2+ goals

22%

Sanluqueño 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

63%

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcoyano at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Sanluqueño away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcoyano attack 1.03 + Sanluqueño defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sanluqueño attack 0.80 + Alcoyano defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alcoyano scores more

44%

level

29%

Sanluqueño scores more

27%

Alcoyano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff