Alcoyano 2–0 Recreativo Huelva: Result & Stats

Alcoyano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Recreativo Huelva

1/27/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcoyano43%

×Draw29%

Recreativo Huelva28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcoyanoExpected goals in this matchRecreativo Huelva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.92

Alcoyano

1.21

Recreativo Huelva

0.92

Alcoyano creates 32% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

1.03

creates per match

0.87

0.97

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Alcoyano

1.03

Recreativo Huelva

0.87

allows per match

Alcoyano

0.97

Recreativo Huelva

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcoyano ↓

Recreativo Huelva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alcoyano or draw

72%

Alcoyano or Recreativo Huelva

71%

Draw or Recreativo Huelva

57%

Winning margin

Alcoyano wins by 2+

19%

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals

70%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

34%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

12%

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

60%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

23%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

60%

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcoyano at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcoyano attack 1.03 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Alcoyano defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alcoyano scores more

43%

level

29%

Recreativo Huelva scores more

28%

Alcoyano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff