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Alcoyano vs Novelda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Alcoyano
Alcoyano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Novelda
Novelda
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alcoyano67%
×Draw20%
Novelda13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcoyano
2.00
Novelda
0.74

Alcoyano creates 170% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Alcoyano
2.29
Novelda
1.11

allows per match

Alcoyano
0.36
Novelda
1.70

finishing

Alcoyano+0.00on par
Novelda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcoyano ↓

Novelda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alcoyano or draw
87%
Alcoyano or Novelda
80%
Draw or Novelda
33%

Winning margin

Alcoyano wins by 2+
42%
Novelda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals
86%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
59%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
32%
Novelda 1+ goals
52%
Novelda 2+ goals
17%
Novelda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alcoyano (draw refunded)
84%
Novelda (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcoyano at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Novelda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcoyano attack 2.29 + Novelda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.00

Novelda attack 1.11 + Alcoyano defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Alcoyano scores more
67%
level
20%
Novelda scores more
13%

Alcoyano at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcoyano vs Novelda

Alcoyano and Novelda drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Collao in Alcoy.