Alcoyano 0–0 Crevillente: Result & Stats

Alcoyano

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crevillente

11/17/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alcoyano66%

×Draw22%

Crevillente12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcoyanoExpected goals in this matchCrevillente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.61

Alcoyano

1.82

Crevillente

0.61

Alcoyano creates 198% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

2.29

creates per match

0.87

0.36

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Alcoyano

2.29

Crevillente

0.87

allows per match

Alcoyano

0.36

Crevillente

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Crevillente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcoyano ↓

Crevillente →

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alcoyano or draw

88%

Alcoyano or Crevillente

78%

Draw or Crevillente

34%

Winning margin

Alcoyano wins by 2+

40%

Crevillente wins by 2+

Team goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals

84%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

54%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

27%

Crevillente 1+ goals

46%

Crevillente 2+ goals

13%

Crevillente 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

85%

Crevillente (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcoyano at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Crevillente away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.35 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcoyano attack 2.29 + Crevillente defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.82

Crevillente attack 0.87 + Alcoyano defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Alcoyano scores more

66%

level

22%

Crevillente scores more

12%

Alcoyano at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Mas← Kevin Laosa

72'

Ale Peiró← Fran Machado

80'

José Piñera← Carlos Quesada

84'

Moltó← A. Diakité

88'

Jesús Planelles← Cristian Sánchez

Alcoyano

Crevillente

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vicente Parras

72'▲Ale Peiró←▼Fran Machado

84'▲Moltó←▼A. Diakité

Alcoyano substitutes

PeiróMoltó

Manager: José Gomis

56'▲Mas←▼Kevin Laosa

80'▲José Piñera←▼Carlos Quesada

88'▲Jesús Planelles←▼Cristian Sánchez

Crevillente substitutes

MasPiñeraPlanelles

Match Recap: Alcoyano vs Crevillente

Alcoyano and Crevillente drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Collao in Alcoy.

Alcoyano vs Crevillente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alcoyano vs Crevillente