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Alcoyano vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcoyano
Alcoyano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
3/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Alcoyano44%
×Draw29%
Atlético Baleares27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcoyano
1.23
Atlético Baleares
0.90

Alcoyano creates 37% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Alcoyano
1.03
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Alcoyano
0.97
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Alcoyano+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcoyano ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alcoyano or draw
73%
Alcoyano or Atlético Baleares
71%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
56%

Winning margin

Alcoyano wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals
71%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
35%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcoyano (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcoyano at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcoyano attack 1.03 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Alcoyano defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alcoyano scores more
44%
level
29%
Atlético Baleares scores more
27%

Alcoyano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Alcoyano 1–1 Atlético Baleares

Alcoyano and Atlético Baleares drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Collao in Alcoy.