Alcorcon 1–0 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tarazona

L. Vacas 21'

11/23/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alcorcon53%

×Draw27%

Tarazona21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.80

Alcorcon

1.46

Tarazona

0.80

Alcorcon creates 83% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.61

creates per match

0.56

1.03

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Alcorcon

1.61

Tarazona

0.56

allows per match

Alcorcon

1.03

Tarazona

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

79%

Alcorcon or Tarazona

73%

Draw or Tarazona

47%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

27%

Tarazona wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

77%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

43%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

18%

Tarazona 1+ goals

55%

Tarazona 2+ goals

19%

Tarazona 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

72%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alcorcon scores more

53%

level

27%

Tarazona scores more

21%

Alcorcon at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

21'

38'

42'

45+2'

57'

A. Lopez← Martinez Chechu

57'

D. Soto← D. Rodriguez

62'

66'

67'

70'

70'

D. Cubillas← M. Trilles

72'

D. Navarro← L. Vacas

72'

B. Martinez← R. Llorente

76'

I. Alonso

78'

G. Ayesa

78'

S. Rodriguez← E. Aparicio

Alcorcon

Tarazona

1

Josele

14

Borge

5

Traore

4

▼

Trilles

3

▼

Chechu

21

▼

Nieto

23

▼

Rodriguez

6

Carrasco

8

▼

19

10

1

2

4

6

3

21

▼

Llorente

18

Aguado

10

Ballester

14

⚽

▼

Vacas

11

Kopotun

7

▼

Aparicio

Manager: Pablo Álvarez

72'▲D. Navarro←▼L. Vacas

72'▲B. Martinez←▼R. Llorente

78'▲S. Rodriguez←▼E. Aparicio

Alcorcon substitutes

13Marti17Lanchi24Perez15Rodriguez23Navarro8Martinez

Manager: Juanma Barrero

38'▲J. Gomez←▼C. Nieto

57'▲A. Lopez←▼Martinez Chechu

57'▲D. Soto←▼D. Rodriguez

70'▲I. Alonso←▼A. Ramon

70'▲D. Cubillas←▼M. Trilles

Tarazona substitutes

13Amigo27Fita2Lopez22Vaquero20Martinez15Alonso9Cubillas11Gomez7Soto