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Alcorcon vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
11/18/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Alcorcon35%
×Draw31%
Sporting Gijon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.02
Sporting Gijon
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 169 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
0.90
Sporting Gijon
0.90

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.10
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
66%
Alcorcon or Sporting Gijon
69%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
65%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
13%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
64%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
27%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
8%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
63%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
26%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
51%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Alcorcon scores more
35%
level
31%
Sporting Gijon scores more
34%

Alcorcon at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alcorcon 0–0 Sporting Gijon

Alcorcon and Sporting Gijon drew 0-0 in Segunda División on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.