Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alcorcon vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
9/29/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon55%
×Draw25%
Sevilla Atletico20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.57
Sevilla Atletico
0.84

Alcorcon creates 87% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Sevilla Atletico
0.65

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Sevilla Atletico
1.53

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
80%
Alcorcon or Sevilla Atletico
75%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
45%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
29%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
79%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
46%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
21%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
57%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
21%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
73%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alcorcon scores more
55%
level
25%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
20%

Alcorcon at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Alcorcon 2–2 Sevilla Atletico

Alcorcon and Sevilla Atletico drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.