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Alcorcon vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
9/18/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon54%
×Draw27%
San Fernando CD19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.43
San Fernando CD
0.71

Alcorcon creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.53
San Fernando CD
0.95

allows per match

Alcorcon
0.47
San Fernando CD
1.32

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
81%
Alcorcon or San Fernando CD
73%
Draw or San Fernando CD
46%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
27%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
76%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
42%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
17%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
51%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
16%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
75%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.53 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + Alcorcon defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alcorcon scores more
54%
level
27%
San Fernando CD scores more
19%

Alcorcon at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcon vs San Fernando CD

Alcorcon beat San Fernando CD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.