Alcorcon 2–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sabadell

Jimenez Xisco 47'

I. Ozkoidi 33' (OG)

5/19/2021

Segunda División · Round 40Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alcorcon37%

×Draw30%

Sabadell33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.02

Alcorcon

1.09

Sabadell

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 21 away

0.90

creates per match

0.95

1.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Alcorcon

0.90

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

Alcorcon

1.10

Sabadell

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

67%

Alcorcon or Sabadell

70%

Draw or Sabadell

63%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

15%

Sabadell wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

66%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

30%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

10%

Sabadell 1+ goals

64%

Sabadell 2+ goals

27%

Sabadell 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

53%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Sabadell defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alcorcon scores more

37%

level

30%

Sabadell scores more

33%

Alcorcon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Dani Jimenez

Alcorcon · G

7.7

Match Events

33'

I. OzkoidiOwn goal

47'

Jimenez Xisco

52'

X. Boniquet← V. Garcia

53'

J. Hernandez Garcia← A. Rey

53'

H. Pena← H. Pena

55'

V. Garcia

57'

Jimenez Xisco← O. Arribas

59'

I. Ozkoidi← P. Cornud

70'

F. Escobar← F. Escobar

75'

I. Undabarrena← P. Capo

79'

Juanma Bravo← Reko

79'

M. Gual← Barbero

79'

D. Ojeda← E. Gomez

82'

G. Guruzeta

90'

P. Cornud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlcorconSabadell

Overview

47%Possession53%

3Total Shots8

2Corners4

12Fouls17

Shots

3Total Shots8

2On Target3

1Off Target5

0Blocked0

2Inside Box4

1Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

399Total Passes448

298Accurate Passes345

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2