Alcorcon 1–0 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Santander

11/2/2019

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Alcorcon37%

×Draw28%

Racing Santander35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.13

Alcorcon

1.17

Racing Santander

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

0.90

creates per match

1.16

1.10

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Alcorcon

0.90

Racing Santander

1.16

allows per match

Alcorcon

1.10

Racing Santander

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

65%

Alcorcon or Racing Santander

72%

Draw or Racing Santander

63%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

15%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

69%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

33%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

11%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

68%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

31%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

51%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alcorcon scores more

37%

level

28%

Racing Santander scores more

35%

Alcorcon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff