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Alcorcon vs Marbella — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Marbella
Marbella
5/17/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon54%
×Draw24%
Marbella22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.75
Marbella
1.04

Alcorcon creates 68% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Marbella
1.05

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Marbella
1.89

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Marbella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
78%
Alcorcon or Marbella
76%
Draw or Marbella
46%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
30%
Marbella wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
83%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
52%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
25%
Marbella 1+ goals
65%
Marbella 2+ goals
28%
Marbella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
71%
Marbella (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Marbella defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Marbella attack 1.05 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alcorcon scores more
54%
level
24%
Marbella scores more
22%

Alcorcon at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcon vs Marbella

Alcorcon beat Marbella 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.