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Alcorcon vs Leganes — Segunda División 2018

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Leganes
Leganes
8/19/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Alcorcon34%
×Draw30%
Leganes36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.00
Leganes
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
0.90
Leganes
0.97

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.10
Leganes
1.09

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Leganes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
64%
Alcorcon or Leganes
70%
Draw or Leganes
66%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
13%
Leganes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
63%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
26%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
8%
Leganes 1+ goals
65%
Leganes 2+ goals
28%
Leganes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
49%
Leganes (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Leganes attack 0.97 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alcorcon scores more
34%
level
30%
Leganes scores more
36%

Leganes at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alcorcon 0–2 Leganes

Leganes beat Alcorcon 2-0 in Segunda División on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.