Alcorcon 1–1 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fuenlabrada

12/3/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon62%

×Draw26%

Fuenlabrada13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.52

Alcorcon

1.52

Fuenlabrada

0.52

Alcorcon creates 192% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.53

creates per match

0.58

0.47

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Alcorcon

1.53

Fuenlabrada

0.58

allows per match

Alcorcon

0.47

Fuenlabrada

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

87%

Alcorcon or Fuenlabrada

74%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

38%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

33%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

78%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

45%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

20%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

41%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

10%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

83%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.53 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Alcorcon defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Alcorcon scores more

62%

level

26%

Fuenlabrada scores more

13%

Alcorcon at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff