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Alcorcon vs Espanyol — Segunda División 2018

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Espanyol
Espanyol
5/30/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 42Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Alcorcon29%
×Draw30%
Espanyol41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
0.90
Espanyol
1.13

Espanyol creates 26% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 44 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
0.90
Espanyol
1.16

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.10
Espanyol
0.89

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Espanyol+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Espanyol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
59%
Alcorcon or Espanyol
70%
Draw or Espanyol
71%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
10%
Espanyol wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
59%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
23%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
6%
Espanyol 1+ goals
68%
Espanyol 2+ goals
31%
Espanyol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
41%
Espanyol (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Espanyol away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Espanyol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Espanyol attack 1.16 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alcorcon scores more
29%
level
30%
Espanyol scores more
41%

Espanyol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcon vs Espanyol

Alcorcon beat Espanyol 1-0 in Segunda División on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.