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Alcorcon vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cordoba
Cordoba
1/27/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Alcorcon42%
×Draw28%
Cordoba31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.31
Cordoba
1.08

Alcorcon creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 64 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
0.90
Cordoba
1.05

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.10
Cordoba
1.73

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
69%
Alcorcon or Cordoba
72%
Draw or Cordoba
58%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
19%
Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
73%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
38%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
14%
Cordoba 1+ goals
66%
Cordoba 2+ goals
29%
Cordoba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
58%
Cordoba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Cordoba defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cordoba attack 1.05 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alcorcon scores more
42%
level
28%
Cordoba scores more
31%

Alcorcon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alcorcon 2–1 Cordoba

Alcorcon beat Cordoba 2-1 in Segunda División on January 27, 2019.

The match was played at Santo Domingo in Alcorcon.