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Alcorcon vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
9/4/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon49%
×Draw27%
Celta de Vigo II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.41
Celta de Vigo II
0.90

Alcorcon creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.53
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Alcorcon
0.47
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
76%
Alcorcon or Celta de Vigo II
73%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
51%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
24%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
76%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
41%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
17%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
59%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
23%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
67%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.53 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Alcorcon defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alcorcon scores more
49%
level
27%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
24%

Alcorcon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Alcorcon 1–1 Celta de Vigo II

Alcorcon and Celta de Vigo II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.