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Alcorcon vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
9/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon45%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.44
Atlético Madrid II
1.11

Alcorcon creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
71%
Alcorcon or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
55%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
76%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
42%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alcorcon scores more
45%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
29%

Alcorcon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Alcorcon 2–3 Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Alcorcon 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.