Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alcorcón II vs Villaviciosa Odón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Alcorcón II53%
×Draw23%
Villaviciosa Odón25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.89
Villaviciosa Odón
1.22

Alcorcón II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 20 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Villaviciosa Odón
1.50

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Villaviciosa Odón
2.30

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Villaviciosa Odón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
75%
Alcorcón II or Villaviciosa Odón
77%
Draw or Villaviciosa Odón
47%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
30%
Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
85%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
56%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
29%
Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
70%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
34%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
68%
Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Villaviciosa Odón away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.89

Villaviciosa Odón attack 1.50 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
53%
level
23%
Villaviciosa Odón scores more
25%

Alcorcón II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcorcón II 3 – 1 Villaviciosa Odón

Alcorcón II beat Villaviciosa Odón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.