Alcorcón II 1–1 Trival Valderas: Result & Stats

Alcorcón II

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Trival Valderas

2/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Alcorcón II47%

×Draw27%

Trival Valderas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcorcón IIExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.95

Alcorcón II

1.39

Trival Valderas

0.95

Alcorcón II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 115 away

1.48

creates per match

0.97

0.94

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Alcorcón II

1.48

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

Alcorcón II

0.94

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw

74%

Alcorcón II or Trival Valderas

73%

Draw or Trival Valderas

53%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

23%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

75%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

40%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

16%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

61%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

25%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

65%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alcorcón II scores more

47%

level

27%

Trival Valderas scores more

26%

Alcorcón II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Trival Valderas

Alcorcón II and Trival Valderas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.

Alcorcón II vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Trival Valderas