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Alcorcón II vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Alcorcón II52%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.61
Tres Cantos
0.98

Alcorcón II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 71 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
77%
Alcorcón II or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
48%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
28%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
80%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
48%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
22%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
62%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
26%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
69%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
52%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
23%

Alcorcón II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcorcón II 0–2 Tres Cantos

Tres Cantos beat Alcorcón II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.