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Alcorcón II vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
4/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Alcorcón II43%
×Draw27%
RSD Alcalá30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.34
RSD Alcalá
1.08

Alcorcón II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 99 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
70%
Alcorcón II or RSD Alcalá
73%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
57%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
20%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
74%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
39%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
15%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
66%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
29%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
59%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
43%
level
27%
RSD Alcalá scores more
30%

Alcorcón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Alcorcón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.