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Alcorcón II vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Alcorcón II48%
×Draw28%
Móstoles CF24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.36
Móstoles CF
0.88

Alcorcón II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 16 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Móstoles CF
0.81

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Móstoles CF
1.25

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Móstoles CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
76%
Alcorcón II or Móstoles CF
72%
Draw or Móstoles CF
52%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
23%
Móstoles CF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
74%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
39%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
16%
Móstoles CF 1+ goals
59%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
22%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
66%
Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
48%
level
28%
Móstoles CF scores more
24%

Alcorcón II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Móstoles CF

Alcorcón II beat Móstoles CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.