Alcorcón II 3–1 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

Alcorcón II

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Madrid 2021 FP

1/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Alcorcón II44%

×Draw27%

Madrid 2021 FP29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcorcón IIExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.10

Alcorcón II

1.41

Madrid 2021 FP

1.10

Alcorcón II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 35 away

1.48

creates per match

1.26

0.94

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Alcorcón II

1.48

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Alcorcón II

0.94

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw

71%

Alcorcón II or Madrid 2021 FP

73%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

56%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

21%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

76%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

41%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

17%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

67%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

30%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

60%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alcorcón II scores more

44%

level

27%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

29%

Alcorcón II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Madrid 2021 FP

Alcorcón II beat Madrid 2021 FP 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.

Alcorcón II vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Madrid 2021 FP