Alcorcón II 2–2 Leganés II: Result & Stats

Alcorcón II

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Leganés II

11/30/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Alcorcón II37%

×Draw25%

Leganés II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcorcón IIExpected goals in this matchLeganés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.42

Alcorcón II

1.40

Leganés II

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 79 away

1.48

creates per match

1.89

0.94

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Alcorcón II

1.48

Leganés II

1.89

allows per match

Alcorcón II

0.94

Leganés II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Leganés II →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw

62%

Alcorcón II or Leganés II

75%

Draw or Leganés II

63%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

17%

Leganés II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

75%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

41%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

17%

Leganés II 1+ goals

76%

Leganés II 2+ goals

41%

Leganés II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

49%

Leganés II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alcorcón II scores more

37%

level

25%

Leganés II scores more

38%

Leganés II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff