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Alcorcón II vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
1/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Alcorcón II42%
×Draw28%
Las Rozas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.31
Las Rozas
1.08

Alcorcón II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 88 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
69%
Alcorcón II or Las Rozas
72%
Draw or Las Rozas
58%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
19%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
73%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
38%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
14%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
66%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
29%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
58%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
42%
level
28%
Las Rozas scores more
31%

Alcorcón II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Las Rozas

Las Rozas beat Alcorcón II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.