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Alcorcón II vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
CANC
00:00
El Álamo
El Álamo
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Alcorcón II55%
×Draw24%
El Álamo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.66
El Álamo
0.90

Alcorcón II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 47 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
80%
Alcorcón II or El Álamo
76%
Draw or El Álamo
45%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
30%
El Álamo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
81%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
49%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
23%
El Álamo 1+ goals
59%
El Álamo 2+ goals
23%
El Álamo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
73%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
55%
level
24%
El Álamo scores more
20%

Alcorcón II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcorcón II vs El Álamo — Match Preview

Alcorcón II face El Álamo on April 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alcorcón II host El Álamo at Campo 2 Alcorcón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.