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Alcorcón II vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Alcorcón II50%
×Draw25%
Atlético Pinto24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.58
Atlético Pinto
1.02

Alcorcón II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 29 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
76%
Alcorcón II or Atlético Pinto
75%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
50%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
79%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
47%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
50%
level
25%
Atlético Pinto scores more
24%

Alcorcón II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcorcón II 1–2 Atlético Pinto

Atlético Pinto beat Alcorcón II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.