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JJK vs HIFK Helsinki — Ykkönen 2018

JJK
JJK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
6/1/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 4Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JJK36%
×Draw24%
HIFK Helsinki39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
1.48
HIFK Helsinki
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

creates per match

JJK
1.67
HIFK Helsinki
1.48

allows per match

JJK
1.62
HIFK Helsinki
1.30

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

JJK or draw
61%
JJK or HIFK Helsinki
76%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
64%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
17%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
77%
JJK 2+ goals
43%
JJK 3+ goals
19%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
79%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
46%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
48%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.62 · 61 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 1.67 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.48 + JJK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JJK scores more
36%
level
24%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
39%

HIFK Helsinki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JJK vs HIFK Helsinki

HIFK Helsinki beat JJK 2-0 in Ykkönen on June 1, 2018.

The match was played at Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä).