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Alcobendas Sport vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torrejón
Torrejón
9/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Alcobendas Sport40%
×Draw26%
Torrejón34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.40
Torrejón
1.27

Alcobendas Sport creates 10% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 115 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
66%
Alcobendas Sport or Torrejón
74%
Draw or Torrejón
60%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
19%
Torrejón wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
75%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
41%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
17%
Torrejón 1+ goals
72%
Torrejón 2+ goals
36%
Torrejón 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
54%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
40%
level
26%
Torrejón scores more
34%

Alcobendas Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcobendas Sport 0 – 1 Torrejón

Torrejón beat Alcobendas Sport 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.