Alcobendas Sport 0–2 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Alcobendas Sport

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Ana

12/13/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alcobendas Sport49%

×Draw25%

Santa Ana27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcobendas SportExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.13

Alcobendas Sport

1.62

Santa Ana

1.13

Alcobendas Sport creates 43% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 31 away

1.30

creates per match

0.97

1.28

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.28

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Santa Ana →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw

73%

Alcobendas Sport or Santa Ana

75%

Draw or Santa Ana

51%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

25%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

80%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

48%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

22%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

68%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

31%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

65%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more

49%

level

25%

Santa Ana scores more

27%

Alcobendas Sport at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcobendas Sport 0–2 Santa Ana

Santa Ana beat Alcobendas Sport 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.

Alcobendas Sport vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcobendas Sport 0–2 Santa Ana