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Alcobendas Sport vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Alcobendas Sport45%
×Draw25%
San Fernando Henares30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.56
San Fernando Henares
1.21

Alcobendas Sport creates 29% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 29 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
70%
Alcobendas Sport or San Fernando Henares
75%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
55%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
23%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
79%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
46%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
21%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
70%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
34%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
61%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
45%
level
25%
San Fernando Henares scores more
30%

Alcobendas Sport at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs San Fernando Henares

Alcobendas Sport and San Fernando Henares drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.