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Alcobendas Sport vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 38Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Alcobendas Sport38%
×Draw26%
Madrid 2021 FP36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.32
Madrid 2021 FP
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 35 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Madrid 2021 FP
1.26

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Madrid 2021 FP
1.34

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
64%
Alcobendas Sport or Madrid 2021 FP
74%
Draw or Madrid 2021 FP
62%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
17%
Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
73%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
38%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
15%
Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
72%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
36%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
52%
Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
38%
level
26%
Madrid 2021 FP scores more
36%

Alcobendas Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcobendas Sport 3 – 3 Madrid 2021 FP

Alcobendas Sport and Madrid 2021 FP drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva in Majadahonda.