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Alcobendas Sport vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Alcobendas Sport36%
×Draw27%
Las Rozas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.23
Las Rozas
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 88 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
63%
Alcobendas Sport or Las Rozas
73%
Draw or Las Rozas
64%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
15%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
71%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
35%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
13%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
71%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
36%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
49%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
36%
level
27%
Las Rozas scores more
37%

Las Rozas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcobendas Sport 0–2 Las Rozas

Las Rozas beat Alcobendas Sport 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.