Alcobendas Sport 0–0 Complutense: Result & Stats

Alcobendas Sport

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Complutense

11/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Alcobendas Sport48%

×Draw28%

Complutense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcobendas SportExpected goals in this matchComplutense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.88

Alcobendas Sport

1.36

Complutense

0.88

Alcobendas Sport creates 55% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 36 away

1.30

creates per match

0.47

1.28

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

Complutense

0.47

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.28

Complutense

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Complutense →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw

76%

Alcobendas Sport or Complutense

72%

Draw or Complutense

52%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

23%

Complutense wins by 2+

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

74%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

39%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

16%

Complutense 1+ goals

59%

Complutense 2+ goals

22%

Complutense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

66%

Complutense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Complutense attack 0.47 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more

48%

level

28%

Complutense scores more

24%

Alcobendas Sport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Complutense

Alcobendas Sport and Complutense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.

Alcobendas Sport vs Complutense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Complutense