Alcobendas Sport 2–2 Canillas: Result & Stats

Alcobendas Sport

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Canillas

11/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcobendas Sport47%

×Draw25%

Canillas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcobendas SportExpected goals in this matchCanillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.16

Alcobendas Sport

1.58

Canillas

1.16

Alcobendas Sport creates 36% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 49 away

1.30

creates per match

1.04

1.28

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

Canillas

1.04

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.28

Canillas

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Canillas →

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw

72%

Alcobendas Sport or Canillas

75%

Draw or Canillas

53%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

24%

Canillas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

79%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

47%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

21%

Canillas 1+ goals

69%

Canillas 2+ goals

32%

Canillas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

63%

Canillas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Canillas attack 1.04 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more

47%

level

25%

Canillas scores more

28%

Alcobendas Sport at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Canillas

Alcobendas Sport and Canillas drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva in Majadahonda.

Alcobendas Sport vs Canillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Canillas