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Alcobendas Sport vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Luis Aragonés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Alcobendas Sport44%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pinto30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.50
Atlético Pinto
1.19

Alcobendas Sport creates 26% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 29 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
70%
Alcobendas Sport or Atlético Pinto
74%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
56%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
78%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
44%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
44%
level
26%
Atlético Pinto scores more
30%

Alcobendas Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcobendas Sport 2 – 1 Atlético Pinto

Alcobendas Sport beat Atlético Pinto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Aragonés in Alcobendas.