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Alcantarilla vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
12/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcantarilla26%
×Draw26%
Lorca Deportiva48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
1.00
Lorca Deportiva
1.46

Lorca Deportiva creates 46% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 80 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
52%
Alcantarilla or Lorca Deportiva
74%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
74%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
9%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
63%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
26%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
8%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
77%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
43%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
35%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
26%
level
26%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
48%

Lorca Deportiva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Alcantarilla 1–3 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Alcantarilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.